IN THIS ISSUE

Congratulations. We all made it to 2021.

This issue does not include any of the common editorial tropes for a New Year:

  • A retrospective of the past year
  • Predictions for the new year
  • A list of favorite books, articles, podcasts, and other content from the past year
  • New year resolutions or suggested goals

I skip most of that in my reading, and I'll bet you do too.

Instead, you'll find a lineup of topics to help you achieve your goals, overcome your challenges, and be a better version of yourself:

  • How to hire the first head of sales for a startup
  • How to benefit from the fast growth of cloud marketplaces
  • How to meet changing customer expectations in 2021
  • How to make better decisions in business and life
Dave Vranicar at Driven  

SALES & SELLING | STAFFING | EARLY STAGE

SAAS | INDUSTRY TRENDS

BUYERS | RESEARCH

MANAGING | YOURSELF

How to make better decisions in business and life

"Most decisions have a mix of upside and downside potentials. When figuring out whether a decision is good or bad, you are essentially asking if the upside potential compensates for the risk of the downside.

"To do that, you need to know the possible outcomes and the potential gains and losses associated with each of them. That’s why mapping these out is essential to good decision-making."

Why it matters

Making good decisions is among the most important roles of senior executives. It's also one of the most important skills for getting almost anything you want in life.

The uncertainties of 2020 aren't going to magically disappear in 2021.

We all make dozens of decisions every day. Some decisions are more important than others, but they all add up to what can be major effects on outcomes.

If we can improve the quality of our decisions by even a small amount, we can greatly improve our outcomes.

You can make better decisions in both your professional and personal life.

You can also help your customers and prospects make better decisions.

Who needs this

Three categories of Driven readers are likely to benefit:

  • People who sell. It will help for you to understand how the best of the best of your customers and prospects make good decisions. You'll be able to help coach those who are reluctant to make a decision.
  • People who lead teams. You'll be able to make better decisions for your team. And you'll be able to coach your team members to make better decisions on their own.
  • People who want to improve their personal life. These skills will help you in almost every aspect of your own life, including your relationships with others.

Challenges

For those of us who have never been trained in how to make better decisions, we keep falling into the same traps:

  • We incorrectly judge the quality of our decision-making process by the outcome of our decisions.
  • We don't understand our biases and how they cloud our decisions. (There are more than 100 documented sources of bias.)
  • We don't consider enough alternatives. We don't seek enough divergent views.
  • We don't adequately weigh all the risks.
  • We don't adequately weigh both the upside and downside.
  • We don't estimate probabilities.

Sure, outcomes are important. You try to make careful decisions specifically to achieve better outcomes.

But chance always plays a role in determining outcomes. Unforeseen risks arise.

A black swan or a gray rhino event can always occur. (Think how few of us foresaw COVID-19.)

The outcome of many decisions relies heavily on luck and has little to do with the quality of your decision-making process.

If luck is a major factor in the way you evaluate your decisions, you won't learn how to make better decisions.

If you equate outcomes and decision quality, you might as well flip a coin and forget about making better decisions.

Symptoms

Do you or your leadership team usually evaluate the quality of a decision by its outcome?

In other words, do you think a decision was a good if its outcome was favorable? And you think it was bad if its outcome was undesirable?

A solution to consider

Separate decision outcomes and decision quality.

Focus instead on the strengths and weaknesses of your decision-making processes.

Establish a process for making important decisions. Record what you know and don't know at the time you make your decision.

List your expected outcomes and all the other outcomes you considered. List the probabilities you assigned to each outcome.

In looking back at important decisions, pay more attention to the quality of your process rather than the outcome of your decision.

Resources

I recommend 2 books by Annie Duke, a former professional poker player who holds a Ph.D. in cognitive science. Both books are great reads.

If you don't have time to read an entire book, I suggest the 2 Medium articles by Patrik Edblad.

How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. Annie Duke. 2020. [Formats: Paper, Kindle, audiobook. 288 pages in paper. 93 ratings on Amazon. Average rating: 4.6.]

Related

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts.. Annie Duke. 2019. [Available in hardcover, paperback, Kindle, Audiobook. 288 pages in print. 833 reviews on Amazon. Average rating: 4.8.]

"5 Mental Models to Help You Think More Clearly, Rationally, and Effectively." Patrik Edblad. December 3, 2020. Mind Café. Medium.

"How to Better Avoid Stupid Mistakes in Life." Patrik Edblad. September 24, 2020. Mind Café. Medium.

Dave Vranicar at Driven  

WRAP UP

That's it until your next Driven issue on January 16.

Wishing you a strong start to 2021, and good health and prosperity.

If you've enjoyed this issue, please share it with a colleague or a friend.

Best,

Dave Vranicar

Dave Vranicar at Driven  

ABOUT DRIVEN

Driven is a fortnightly digest for busy revenue leaders in business-to-business SaaS.

It's likely to be most useful if your company sells higher-ticket products that require moderate to heavy involvement of professional sales people.

Driven is here to help you:

  • Achieve your most important goals
  • Overcome your biggest challenges
  • Solve expensive problems
  • Become a better version of yourself.

You'll find an online archive of back issues 12 through 43 at this link.

A word about links, commissions, and endorsements

When I provide links to articles from vendors, does it imply an endorsement?

Only of their content. Not of their products or services.

If I recommend a service or a book, it’s because I think it’s likely to help you. Period.

I get nothing from providing links to any commercial service, including the books for which I provide a link to Amazon.

That may change. I’ll tell you when it does.

Dave Vranicar at Driven